Defence Economics Ltd is a specialist firm of economic and financial consultants offering advice and services to the UK Government and government suppliers. Our employees specialise in cost, benefit, risk, and uncertainty analysis.
Defence Economics has worked closely with MOD Defence Equipment and Support over many years to strengthen its probabilistic assessment of risk and uncertainty. Defence Economics employees have provided standards development, formal guidance, training and coaching in probabilistic assessment, and direct advice on risk, uncertainty, and estimating quality in many major MOD procurements.
Our Methods
Defence Economics provides succinct quantitative analysis to complex issues and is on the cutting edge of latest developments. Many important techniques are well-established in the field of cost and risk estimating and can be read directly across into litigation analysis, including:
- Three-point estimation. Many estimates are made by subject matter experts rather than based on actual data. It is standard practice to capture uncertainty in these estimates by stating the minimum credible, most likely, and maximum credible figures.
- Correctly specifying and modelling risk and uncertainty. An uncertain event will happen, but with a varying and unknown effect. A risk is an unplanned or unexpected event that happens with a probability less than 100%.
- Software used by DE Ltd is specifically designed to analyse risk and uncertainty on a detailed statistical basis. It does this by running thousands of different permutations of all the numerical factors affecting a particular outcome. These are summarised using standard statistical indicators.